General The timing of iOS 9.3 might help a jailbreak come soon(er)!

ArronH · January 15, 2016

"iOS 9.3 is in its first beta and 9.2.1 is nearing release any day now.

The amount of things that 9.3 adds is enormous. Definitely justifying an x.1 update. And as such, it will probably take many betas (I'm thinking 6 or 7) to finalize.

Each beta typically comes out 1-2 weeks apart, with most being 1 week and some being 2 weeks, with exceptional cases being 3 weeks. Let's say that there are 6 betas. The first one dropped Monday. If each beta is released after a week, this will be 6 weeks in beta. More likely it will be 8-10 weeks in beta, they delay the betas often.

With 9.2.1 dropping soon, it will very likely be the last 9.2.x update. All the fixes will be patched in 9.3. It was this way for the Effective Power bug - it cropped up in 8.3, but they didn't release an 8.3.1 update. They patched in 8.4. Likewise if a jailbreak is released, it will be patched in 9.3.

Let's look at the previous major updates (not counting

iOS releases 7, 8, 9 because those always have the same beta period):

iOS 7.1: 4 months in beta, 6 betas

iOS 8.1: ??? months, no betas (technically, this firmware doesn't even count for this data)

iOS 8.2: 3.5 months, 5 betas

iOS 8.3: 3 months, 4 betas, developed parallel to 8.2

iOS 8.4: 3 months, 4 betas

iOS 9.1: 1.5 months, 5 betas, developed parallel to 9.0

iOS 9.2: 1.5 months, 4 betas

Highest: 4 months, 6 betas

Average: 2.75 months, 4 betas

If the trend continues, with the lowest beta period being 1.5 months (6 weeks), iOS 9.3 will have at least 6 weeks of beta, more likely 8-10 or even more.

This being true, iOS 9.2.x is likely jailbroken by some team already, waiting to release it. The fact that a 9.1 JB isn't out already leads to the fact that they also have a 9.1 JB they are just waiting until the 9.2.x one is released and co-releasing it.

Even if 9.3 does not patch the 9.2.x jailbreak when it releases, they will probably release it anyway. This way they can almost guarantee they will have a 6-10 week jailbreak period, at least.

TL;DR iOS 9.3 will probably be 6-10 weeks in beta. 9.2.1 should release in the next week. 9.2.x JB will likely follow shortly thereafter. Waiting to release it for 9.3, even if it does not patch it, is unlikely.

EDIT: Public consensus seems to be that if 9.3 does not patch the 9.2.1 JB that it will not be released. We really can't know. However I'm highly speculative that 9.3 will patch any such jailbreak.

Also don't update to 9.2. 9.1 is "a lot easier to jailbreak" according to Luca Todesco @qwertyoruiop. It is unlikely a 9.1 JB will be released that does not support 9.2, stay on it though."

Credits to the OP and the poster! His/her logic is fascinating.

Rook · January 15, 2016

I believe a Jailbreak won't be released until iOS 9.3 is officially released to prevent Apple from patching the exploits so quickly.

So, we're probably looking at a good 2 months before we see a Jailbreak. Hopefully the Chinese Jailbreak teams will release something for Chinese New Year?

Let's just hope iOS 10 doesn't go into beta shortly after 9.3 is public.